First, he believes that the real exchange rate is determined by the savings surplus, while I argue that the causality for the countries targeting the real exchange rate (and that is what they are, without doubt, doing) is the other way round. In other words, countries target a nominal exchange rate and try to keep inflation down. They do so by pursuing monetary, fiscal and regulatory policies intended to curb domestic demand and so make room for the surplus on net exports. I am not suggesting they can do this forever. But they can do it for a very long time.
首先，他認(rèn)為實(shí)際匯率是由儲(chǔ)蓄盈余決定的，而我認(rèn)為，對(duì)那些瞄準(zhǔn)實(shí)際匯率的國家（這正是他們正在做的，毫無疑問）來說，因果關(guān)系恰好相反。換言之，這些國家瞄準(zhǔn)一個(gè)名義匯率，并試圖保持低通脹率。他們通過執(zhí)行貨幣、財(cái)政和監(jiān)管政策以遏制國內(nèi)需求，給凈出口盈余制造空間來達(dá)到以上目標(biāo)。我并不是說他們可以永遠(yuǎn)這么做。但他們可以在很長一段時(shí)間內(nèi)這么做。