Inflation is a monetary phenomenon, but it is also much bigger than that. Price rises in the US, UK and EU are breaking decades-old records, and burning into wage packets. High inflation is a grim policy problem at the best of times, and these are not those. In the US this week, consumer price inflation was revealed to have hit 8.5 per cent. “Core” inflation, which excludes the most volatile items, rose by less than expected, but was still up 6.6 per cent on the year. Factory gate prices are up 11.2 per cent on last year.
Part of this is a pandemic story. In the US, in particular, demand is outstripping supply as life resumes after Covid restrictions. Habits have changed, so there is greater demand for goods than before the pandemic and less for services. Meanwhile, the pandemic — particularly in China — still weighs on supply.
Partly, inflation is also a war story. Food and energy prices have both soared as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.