Donald Trump says tariff is a “beautiful word”. But he also prides himself on being a dealmaker. So the EU approach to the president-elect’s tariff threats suggested by European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde in an FT interview — “not to retaliate, but to negotiate” — makes sense, at least initially. Any EU offer to buy more US goods to head off a rancorous trade war should, though, be backed up by the understanding that the bloc is ready to retaliate robustly if the returning president does opt for punitive tariffs. Trump would surely seize on anything less as a sign of weakness.
The trade threat was amplified when Trump last week pledged day-one tariffs on Canada and Mexico and additional duties on China — highlighting a willingness to blow up supply chains even with America’s biggest trading partners. On Saturday, he threatened tariffs of 100 per cent on Brics countries if they undermined the dollar. But tariffs appear as much a negotiating tool as an ideological goal. Managing trade with the Trump’s US is set to be a central task of the new European Commission, whose term officially began on Sunday — particularly given the EU’s sizeable trade surplus with the US.
Brussels has already floated buying more US energy, military and agricultural goods as a concession. Importing more US liquefied natural gas would help the EU finally to ban remaining Russian LNG imports. Europe will need US-made weaponry, too, if it is to shoulder more of the burden of defending Ukraine. This approach neatly targets two Trump priorities at once: the EU can say it is bolstering its energy and military security while helping US producers.