The writer is chief Asia economist at Morgan Stanley
Investors hoping that volatility eases for the rest of the year may not like what they see on the calendar. As attention turns towards the US elections in November, investors in Asia are trying to understand how US-China trade relations could evolve.
The experience of the 2018-19 round of US tariffs on China may be instructive. What we learned was that the indirect effect of tariffs on corporate confidence, global capital expenditure and hence trade put more pressure on China’s growth than the direct effects on flows of exports and imports.
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