Recent data out of Germany paints a bleak near-term picture for Europe’s economic powerhouse. Its economy entered a recession this year, and investor sentiment in the country recently fell at the fastest pace since the pandemic. The OECD now expects its growth to be the lowest among major economies in 2023. Its trajectory beyond this year is, however, a greater concern. Prevailing geopolitical headwinds — from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to rising US-China tensions — have highlighted vulnerabilities in Germany’s international economic model and underscored its longer-term challenges.German chancellor Olaf Scholz has been ambitious in trying to reorient the economy — including by reducing Germany’s dependence on Russian energy and in securing new supply chains for industry. The government has been moving quickly. An aim to have renewables account for 80 per cent of its power mix has raised Germany’s attractiveness as a destination for green investment. Billions are being spent to boost its semiconductor industry. The economy has also shown resilience by confounding dire forecasts for a deep recession this year. But the scale of the task ahead remains enormous.
德國最近公布的數據顯示，這個歐洲經濟強國近期前景黯淡。德國經濟今年出現衰退，該國的投資者情緒最近以疫情以來最快的速度降低。經合組織(OECD)現在預計，今年德國的經濟增長率將是主要經濟體中最低的。然而，今年過后的走勢更令人擔憂。當前的地緣政治逆風——從俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭到美中之間的緊張局勢升級——突顯了德國奉行的國際化經濟模式的脆弱，也凸顯了其在中長期面臨的挑戰。