Has the time come to slow the monetary tightening or even reverse it? That the answer to these questions is “yes” is becoming an increasingly common view. Markets are certainly behaving as if the days of tightening were numbered. They might even be right. But, crucially, they will only be right on the future of monetary policy if economies turn out to be weak. The stronger economies are, the greater the worry of central banks that inflation will not return to a stable 2 per cent and so the longer policy is likely to stay tight. In essence, then, one can hope that economies will be strong, policy will ease and inflation will vanish, all at the same time. But this best of all possible worlds is far from the most likely one.
現在到了放慢收緊貨幣政策的步伐、甚至放松政策的時候了嗎？日益普遍的觀點認為，上述問題的答案是肯定的。市場的表現顯然表明它認為保持緊縮貨幣政策的日子已經屈指可數。這種觀點甚至可能是對的。但至關重要的是，只有在經濟疲軟的情況下，對貨幣政策走向的這種判斷才是正確的。經濟越強勁，各國央行就越擔心通脹無法回到2%的穩定水平，因此維持緊縮政策的時間可能就會越長。因此，歸根到底，人們可以同時希望經濟會強勁、政策會放松，通脹會消失，但這三種最好情況同時發生遠非可能性最高的結果。