Beijing’s rapid dismantling of its Covid lockdowns — whose impact will become clear after the Chinese new year break, when the Tiger has handed over to the Rabbit — will undoubtedly be one of the economic events of 2023.

Predicting the impact on world growth involves sorting through a tangle of contradictory effects. On the positive side, a surge in consumption will boost export demand elsewhere. On the negative, higher Chinese industrial production means more demand for fuel and particularly LNG, possibly reinflating the energy cost shock. In any case, if the reopening creates a new surge of cases and a healthcare crisis, it could be a drag rather than a boost to growth.

The impact on globalisation and particularly the goods trading system is similarly unclear. The immediate thought is a positive one. Reopening could help unclog Chinese shipping and trucking routes, reducing strains in value chains. But the transition could be choppy, to say the least. Ports and factories are subject to the same reopening risks as for overall growth. Infected workers staying home won’t keep container terminals open, and in any case ports, which are capital rather than labour intensive, have been running relatively smoothly compared to much of the domestic economy.