Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine this year brought to an end the post-cold war reconciliation between Russia and the west. Rivalries between the US and China have increased, too, as Beijing ramped up its military pressure on Taiwan and Washington tightened controls on technology exports to China. Great power confrontation is back.

Even countries that are not sending military aid to Ukraine, or limiting trade with Russia or China, ought to be concerned. If Russia followed through on its hints that it might use nuclear weapons, the entire world would be thrust into a perilous new era. Great power rivalry has also led to a proliferation of economic sanctions, which threaten trade and investment flows and have made countries in the global south ever more wary of the dollar’s dominance of the international financial system.

Yet increased competition between a US-led western alliance and a Russia-China axis offers opportunities as well as threats for “middle powers”. As Washington, Brussels, Beijing and Moscow attempt to bend world affairs in their direction, they have to pay more attention to the views of those in between — such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia and South Africa.