The energy stand-off between Russia and Europe is reaching high noon. The Kremlin last week shut down indefinitely its main westwards gas pipeline, Nord Stream 1, cutting total Russian gas flows to a fraction of prewar levels and sending prices surging. Vladimir Putin’s calculation is that European countries will prove less able to bear soaring winter energy bills and possible shortages than Russia can withstand western sanctions — and that their unity and resolve will shatter before the spring brings renewed military offensives in Ukraine. With Kyiv’s forces starting to make breakthroughs, the coming energy battle is one that democratic Europe cannot lose.

As the EU thrashes out its joint response, there is cause for guarded optimism. Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission president, says Russian gas has fallen from 40 per cent of EU gas imports before the war to 9 per cent today. New suppliers of liquefied natural gas have been found, fuel sources switched and efficiency measures brought in. The EU’s gas storage is 84 per cent full — higher than the 80 per cent target it set for the end of October.

Prices, though volatile, have dropped below the level before the Nord Stream 1 closure was announced. Some analysts dare to whisper that, having already fired his main gas weapon, Putin may have limited ammunition left.