China would have held the world record for the biggest initial public offering if Ant group had listed in November 2020. At the time, the financial services business planned to raise $37bn, valuing it at about $315bn. Alibaba’s payments affiliate may never get back to that valuation. But it still holds the key to stemming outflows from Chinese stocks.

Conflicting reports on whether an Ant listing will go ahead have triggered wild swings in Alibaba’s US-listed shares in the past two months. China’s regulator denied stories it has started discussions on reviving the transaction.

The volatility brings back memories of 2020, when the cancellation of the Ant listing marked the beginning of a two-year crackdown on the tech sector and sharp sell-off in stocks. Hong Kong listed shares of Alibaba have nearly halved in the past year. At 15 times forward earnings, they trade lower than local peers also targeted by Beijing’s crackdowns, such as Tencent.