Joe Biden’s election as president would dash the US oil industry’s hopes for a swift recovery from this year’s crash, with new drilling limits cutting production and leaving the country more reliant on foreign supplies.

Even so, as some big producers begin a transition to cleaner energy and a shrunken sector nurses its wounds after the oil price rout, the industry’s preference in November’s election has become less clear cut.

“A Biden victory will be a shot in the arm for oil’s competitors, putting the federal government’s weight behind the energy transition and low-carbon technologies,” said Amy Myers Jaffe, an energy policy expert and professor at Tufts University. “But a Biden win is the least of the oil industry’s problems right now. Tougher mileage standards don’t mean much if people can’t afford a new car.”