The writer advised Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign and served in the administration of George W Bush

If this week marks a turning point in the 2020 presidential race, it may owe as much to events in Wisconsin as the virtual Republican National Convention. Trailing in the polls, incumbent Donald Trump was already counting on a message about the threat of civil disorder to help him reach undecided and moderate voters.

But events have conspired to give him an unexpected boost. Last Sunday’s shooting of Jacob Blake, who is black, by police in Kenosha, Wisconsin has sparked a wave of protests in this sleepy Midwestern city of fewer than 100,000 residents. Several nights of unrest saw buildings set on fire, fatal gunfire and scuffles among protesters and counter-protesters.