Harry Truman, US president from 1945-53, reputedly yearned for a “one-armed economist” who would give unambiguous advice rather than the “on the one hand, on the other” kind. In the coronavirus crisis, his wish may have come true. Academic economists on both sides of the Atlantic are virtually unanimous in their support of lockdown measures taken by governments to stop the virus from spreading, despite the huge economic costs of doing so.

Over the last week, the scale of those costs has become apparent. In many countries jobs are being lost at a pace not seen since the 1930s. Ten million Americans have applied for unemployment insurance and 1m Britons have registered for universal credit in the last two weeks. 

Purchasing managers’ indices in big European economies have recorded their steepest declines on record. Most analysts now expect a bigger and faster contraction in output across the global economy than during the global financial crisis.