The latest UK government strategy to slow the coronavirus epidemic could lead to between 35,000 and 70,000 excess deaths over the next year, according to an instant analysis by scientists from University College London, the University of Cambridge and Health Data Research UK.

The team of clinicians, statisticians and epidemiologists says the UK measures do not go far enough in stopping the spread of the disease or identifying the most vulnerable high-risk groups. The government should “do more in the pursuit of suppressing the epidemic whether through enforced lockdowns or enforced social distancing rather than voluntary measures”, they add. 

The study — a rapid analysis not yet published in a peer-reviewed journal — estimates the excess number of deaths caused by Covid-19 in relation to underlying medical conditions and age, using NHS health records from 3.8m adults in England.