The economy has come roaring back under President Trump.” Thus reads a statement on the White House website. This claim needs sober evaluation.

The conclusion is that the economy has responded to a big fiscal stimulus roughly as the best forecasters predicted. That upsurge is unlikely to last. The big tax cuts have, as intended, hugely benefited owners of corporations. But they have certainly not paid for themselves. They have left the long-term fiscal position fragile, instead. That Republicans are happy with this is noteworthy. Given their posturing during the Obama era, it is also hypocritical.

Perhaps the simplest conclusion is that a fiscal stimulus works, even at a late stage in the economic cycle. According to Jason Furman, chairman of the council of economic advisers under Barack Obama and now at Harvard University, the stimulus was roughly 1.2 per cent of gross domestic product. A joint paper with Robert Barro, also at Harvard, published in March 2018, forecast that this would boost the rate of growth by 1.1 percentage points in 2018 and 2019. So far, this seems in line with outcomes.