Nuclear power is in danger of fading away as a significant source of electricity supply. The fade will be gradual but is already evident in Germany and the US and the trend is likely to be followed in France, South Korea, Spain, Switzerland and Belgium. In many other areas, existing plants are ageing and while the working lives of some stations will be extended many may not be replaced.

In some cases the process will take decades — in France it will start in the 2030s and South Korean plans stretch to 2060. The rate of decline in the US will be determined by court action against subsidies to the nuclear sector and by attempts to change existing legislation to limit support for renewables.

These shifts will be balanced in part by growth in China and India and perhaps in the Middle East. In Japan, the industry will recover some market share as plants closed after the Fukushima disaster reopen. However, the trend is clear: nuclear will provide a gradually reducing share of total global energy demand.