Once the US and China successfully wrap up their trade talks, global markets are in for a further rally. Or so the theory goes. After all, you can already see it in the world-beating 30 per cent rally in the Shanghai Composite stock index so far this year, and in the way global stocks bob higher and lower on smoke signals from the talks.

It is a simple and compelling argument. But the notion that risky assets are poised to rip higher once President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping sign on the dotted line, may be faulty. In part, that is because the so-called trade war is still, to some investors, hot air.

“Global trade wars are the dog that didn’t bark,” wrote Sonal Desai, chief investment officer for fixed income at investment house Franklin Templeton, in a recent note. “Global trade hasn’t collapsed, and the global economy hasn’t stalled.”