What has been the most important event of 2018 so far? Arguably, it was the speech on US-China relations by Mike Pence, US vice-president, on October 4. It stated America’s intention to confront a rising China across the board: over its “interference in American politics”; over its trade and investment policies, alleged theft of intellectual property and plans for industrial development; over its cyber attacks; over security; over its “debt diplomacy”; and “culture of censorship”. The aim would be “to reset America’s economic and strategic relationship with China”, he said, “to finally put America first”.

The former Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd, an expert on China, denies we are at the start of a “new cold war”. He is right, if by that we mean a conflict identical to that between the US and the Soviet Union after the second world war. But these differences, albeit real, are not that encouraging. Friction between the US and China might be even more damaging than the cold war.

The latter did at least stay relatively “cold”, unlike the two world wars that preceded it. It was also largely limited to ideology and security. The damage a US-China conflict could do to management of the global commons and global prosperity might be vast, partly because the two countries are so interwoven. A new strategic rivalry might also become “hot” — over North Korea, Taiwan or the South China Sea, for example. Remember that the cold war almost went hot over Cuba, in 1962.