Debt stress in Zambia is set to escalate next year as the burden of hefty borrowings from China starts to weigh, throwing the copper-exporting African nation into a struggle to avoid default on its hard currency debt, analysts said.

Opinions diverge on whether default can be evaded, partly because certain factors are subject to both market fluctuations and political uncertainties. But stress is building as the kwacha, the national currency, depreciates against the US dollar, making repayments of an official $9.4bn in debt more expensive in local currency terms.

“My view is that Zambia will not default on its eurobonds, but the country has a few very difficult years ahead,” said Gregory Smith, analyst at Renaissance Capital, an investment bank. “The government has presented next year’s budget, but we think it falls short of an adequate survival plan,” he added.