The trade war is a seductive explanation for the sell-off in Chinese markets. Investors should look for reasons closer to Beijing to fathom weakness. Tight credit, a slowing economy and accumulated offshore borrowings all darken the outlook.
Companies with big export revenues, such as Hikvision, the video surveillance group, and appliance makers Midea and Haier, have done poorly this month. But total tariffs and counter tariffs announced so far cover only 1 per cent of global trade, as Morgan Stanley points out.
Analysts there project a further slowdown of credit growth in China, already at its lowest in at least five years. Recent Renminbi weakness supports exporters but makes imports costly and punishes groups that borrow abroad.
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