Twelve months ago, the theme of the year ahead in Europe promised to be anti-establishment electoral threats to the temperate democracies that had prospered in the continent’s western half since the late 1940s. In the event, to the extent that these threats emanated from rightwing radicals and populists, they were kept in check or defeated (but by no means crushed) in most countries.

The most acute challenges to Europe’s established political order turned out to be the least expected. On the positive side, these included Emmanuel Macron’s reformist insurgency, which swept aside France’s putrescent party political system and catapulted him to the Elysée Palace. On the negative side, they included a Catalan separatist movement that made a reckless thrust for secession from Spain, winning regional elections as the year came to a close.

In January 2018, it is less obvious what the big theme of the year will be. Some of those who believe Europe truly turned a corner in 2017 would like this to be the year when the EU takes decisive steps forward in its 60-year effort at closer unity. They contend that the geopolitical outlook makes such steps advisable, even essential.