Trade and currency issues have dominated the Trump administration’s economic agenda with China. The 100-day plan agreed at Mar-a-Lago between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping will focus on moderating the bilateral trade imbalance. But President Trump’s campaign rhetoric on China as a currency manipulator has given way to the evidence that China has actually been propping up the value of the renminbi.
Mr Trump’s moves towards imposing tariffs on steel imports show that potential for conflict over trade remains. However, the more important economic concern has to do with Beijing’s restrictive foreign investment regime, which has a negative impact on both the US and the EU.
Populist sentiment suggests too much American foreign direct investment is going to China, to the detriment of US employment and trade. Yet, surprisingly, despite these being the two largest economies and trading nations, over the past decade only about 1-2 per cent of America’s FDI has been going to China. In contrast, around 20 per cent of South Korean and Japanese FDI is to China. So the real question is: why does America invest so little in China?