In October 1996, as the launch of the euro came closer, I argued that: “The choice looming for the UK is between being inside the European Monetary Union and being outside?.?.?.?It will become a choice between having a voice within the governing arrangements of Europe and not having one. In time, it will be between being inside the EU and being outside it.”

I concluded, for this reason, that the UK should consider joining. Shortly thereafter I changed my mind, arguing that the UK could not thrive inside it. Subsequent events have confirmed this judgment. But my earlier concern has also been vindicated.

The UK has long been semi-detached and is now well on its way to becoming fully detached. The pending divorce poses a huge challenge for the UK. But it also brings challenges for the EU. To thrive, perhaps even to survive, it must change. The UK’s departure is a threat but also perhaps an opportunity.