There are two unions whose fortunes rest on the outcome of the June 23 referendum. If Britain chooses Brexit the consequences will be serious, though probably not terminal, for the 27 remaining members of Europe’s union. Germany and France are doubtless thinking hard about how best to underscore the cohesion of the rest of the EU. The second union — that of the nations of the United Kingdom — would be at greater risk from the centrifugal forces of a Leave vote.

The Outs have become the voice of strident English nationalism. The Conservative-led Leave campaign has all but abandoned the considered case for quitting the EU to throw in its lot with the populists of Nigel Farage’s UK Independence party. The shared message is anti-immigrant, anti-establishment, anti-intellectual and anti-just about anything you care to think of. Call it project anger.

Whatever the overall outcome, the nations and regions of the UK will not vote as one. A glance at the geography of British opinion suggests that three areas are all but certain to back maintaining the present relationship with Europe. London, Northern Ireland and Scotland all show clear pro-European majorities. Wales is harder to call.