The commodity price slump will not lead to a 1980s-style rash of sovereign defaults, despite obstacles blocking the necessary fiscal reform in many exporting countries, according to analysis by Oxford Economics.
However, a further wave of sovereign downgrades is likely — with rating agencies still overrating exporters by two notches on average — and a few more countries may be forced to go cap in hand to the International Monetary Fund.
Oxford Economics identified 28 sovereign defaults by 17 emerging market countries in the wake of the 1980s commodity slump, with Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Peru, Venezuela, Ecuador and Iran all defaulting twice.
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