By keeping interest rates on hold a while longer, the Federal Reserve has given emerging markets, braced for possible capital outflows with rising yields in the US, at least a temporary reprieve. And by not including China in its benchmark indices quite yet, MSCI has indirectly helped support other emerging markets, as fund managers underinvested in Chinese shares would have had to sell down other markets to adjust to new weightings. But there is not much other good news on the horizon.

Today, emerging market central bankers have two contradictory concerns. They fear low rates and the temptation for their borrowers to take on too much debt when it is priced attractively. And they also fear the inevitable end of the low rates that will make the debt burden heavier.

But that is only part of the reason why this particular rainy season the clouds are especially heavy in emerging Asia. Analysts are trying to understand the paradox that while today there seems to be plenty of liquidity in the world, the banks are not channelling that abundant capital to the real economy to support growth.