How many Japanese cars sell in the US under Japanese names? Not too many. So, give Toyota’s Mirai some credit when it arrives next year on California’s highways. Mirai means “future” in Japanese. You could quibble whether the car actually is the future. It will run on hydrogen fuel cells. Californian drivers may prefer to do their smug scooting in electric cars, such as Tesla’s Model S, instead. Only a few hundred Mirai will be made at first in any case.
But can you quibble with Toyota shares’ value? The world’s largest carmaker by sales trades hands on the Tokyo market for 11 times next year’s forecast earnings. Operating profits grew 8 per cent in the company’s fiscal first half. Even if the Mirai turns out to be mirage, the growth looks reasonably priced. This is the test for Japanese equities in general, as Abenomics gears up for a second act (and its prophet, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, gears up for a snap election next month). Buyers must get growth for their money.
This is tricky. Japanese asset prices are positively palpitating. The Topix has risen by a fifth in one month; the yen this week fell to a seven-year low against the US dollar. At Y117 it is already below the median analyst forecast for its level next year, as collected by Bloomberg. The Bank of Japan’s governor does warn that the inflation rate may drop below 1 per cent “for the time being”– a sign of his resolve to get it back to the 2 per cent target through aggressive quantitative easing. Weakening the currency will favour even the sleepiest exporter. TDK, say, is already priced at 21 times its forward earnings, though.