The world in 2014 is by common consent multipolar. Many are convinced that the US is a victim of secular economic stagnation and that its power and influence are waning inexorably as a result. Yet economic events in the coming year will probably throw up evidence to dispel some of the declinist rhetoric that is currently rife, not least in the US itself.

It is not, of course, difficult to make a gloomy case against the world’s great superpower. It is politically dysfunctional, as was shown all too clearly in 2013 by policy makers’ readiness to engage in brinkmanship over the fiscal cliff and flirt with sovereign default. The country’s waning power was demonstrated by the inability of the Obama administration to act decisively over Syria. Its capacity to act is further impaired by a high level of public sector debt. And its political class has been bought by Wall Street bankers with an efficiency and cynicism not seen since Cosimo de Medici bought up the 15th century papacy.

Yet the more vociferous American self-critics often fail to see things in relative terms. The US does not, after all, face the huge problems of transition that now confront China and Japan. Yes, it has structural problems, but nothing to compare with those faced by Europe in energy, labour and banking markets. Equally to the point, its notoriously skewed income distribution is increasingly shared by other countries around the world.