Going against the crowd is a thrill – if you turn out to be right. After a great decade, emerging markets have underperformed for well over a year. Time, then, for a bold call on emerging market bonds?

There are several reasons for optimism. A minor panic last summer subsided when the US Federal Reserve toned down its taper talk. And though the dollar has strengthened since 2011, it continues to waver. In the midst of this, EM corporate bond yields are still attractive. Yields have not changed, but spreads over similarly rated US bonds are near four-year highs. Finally, Treasury volatility has abated after last summer’s spike. This has usually been helpful for EM bond demand.

The sheer volume of dollar-denominated EM credit coming to market is worrisome, though. Last year exceeded 2012’s impressive $292bn of issuance and looks set to rise further this year, according to Merrill Lynch. EM companies like the lower interest rates available, especially if they can lock these in longer term. Meanwhile, new issues are oversubscribed.