Will we sustain an open global economy while also managing tensions between a rising autocracy and democracies in relative economic decline? That was the question posed by the arrival of imperial Germany as Europe’s leading economic and military power in the late 19th century. It is the question posed today by the rise of communist China. Now, as then, mistrust is high and rising. Now, as then, actions of the rising power raise risks of conflict. We know how this story ended in 1914. How will the new one end, a century later?
我們能否一方面維持開放的全球經濟，另一面處理好一個崛起中的威權國家與多個處于經濟相對衰落的民主國家之間的緊張關系？這是19世紀末德意志帝國崛起為歐洲領先的經濟與軍事強國時，拋給世人的問題。這也是當今共產黨中國崛起構成的問題。和當年一樣，如今各方不信任程度很高，而且還在上升。同樣和當年一樣，崛起中的強國所采取的行動加大了沖突風險。我們知道當年的故事是如何在1914年引爆第一次世界大戰的。一個世紀后，當今的故事又將如何收尾？
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