The decade-long hold of “managed” democracy in Russia has been broken. Even on the disputed official results, Russia’s opposition achieved a breakthrough in Sunday’s regional elections. In Moscow’s first mayoral ballot since 2003, anti-corruption blogger Alexei Navalny finished second with 27 per cent of the vote. In Russia’s fourth-largest city, Yekaterinburg, the anti-drugs activist Yevgeny Roizman came first, with 33 per cent.

The Kremlin’s gamble in letting two outspoken critics from outside Russia’s controlled political “system” participate has succeeded in some respects. Neither man won a majority. In Russia’s political capital, scene of the main post-election protests in 2011, the Kremlin-backed candidate, Sergei Sobyanin, still beat the opposition’s brightest star. A poor turnout flattered Mr Navalny’s voting share.

But in many ways the gamble backfired. Mr Sobyanin had all the advantages of the incumbent, with access to “administrative resources” such as influence over law enforcement and media. Even so, his voting share declined throughout the campaign, and the official result put him only one point above the 50 per cent needed to avoid a second-round run-off.