Nanni Moretti, the Italian film director, predicted that 60m Italians would be freed this week from the interests of one of them – Silvio Berlusconi. Mr Moretti has excellent instincts: his film, Habemus Papam , saw through the pageantry of the Vatican to the often forgotten human fragility of the Pope. But he was not so good at predicting Italian voters.

Mr Berlusconi, who was essentially defeated only a month ago, is back. His dramatic return – perhaps the most important political event on the continent this year – rides on the back of his promise to abolish a property tax reintroduced by Mario Monti’s government. Retired Italians are house-rich and cash-poor, which makes property taxes hateful, particularly when liquidity and credit are scarce.

Mr Berlusconi went further: he promised to pay back the €4bn tax, out of his own pocket if necessary (his assets total €5.5bn). He in effect promised to operate as a bank – something Italians lack (last year, credit extended to families in Italy fell by €20bn).