There is talk of a shift, or rotation, from bonds to equities. But another shift in the world of markets may already have started, and it could be more important. It concerns commodities. And it could portend an evolution for China and its economy.

The concern, gradually gaining in urgency, is that commodity prices have peaked and a decade-long upswing, often called a “supercycle”, is over.

The Commodity Research Bureau index of commodities, the longest established, has not shared in the rally by equities. It is down some 15 per cent from a peak almost two years ago. In the decade before that it had almost tripled. And in the two decades before it took off in 2001 the index actually declined (following the explosive rises for commodities during the inflation-racked 1970s).