Rationality and politics aren’t comfortable bedfellows, so we shouldn’t be surprised that the relationship between the EU and Turkey has become more prickly than is sensible for either side. But the case for closer links is overwhelming and 2013 could – and should – be the year the relationship at last improves.

We have come a long way from the heady days in 2005 when the EU and Turkey opened accession negotiations for Turkish membership. Only eight “chapters” out of more than 30 have been opened – the rest blocked by the intransigence of Cyprus, France and other sceptics. Turkish ardour has waned, too. This is partly a response to the perception of the European rebuff. But it also reflected Turkish confidence about its power in the Middle East and beyond. “Zero problems with our neighbours” was the aspiration.

Both Europe and Turkey have good reason to think again. Europe has an economic giant on its doorstep, and it needs all the help it can get. Turkey has a neighbourhood in such flux that Europe looks like an area of relative stability.