China will be the world’s largest economy by 2030 but the US will still remain “first among equals” in the international system, according to a new US government intelligence assessment of global trends.

The report predicts that Europe, Japan and Russia will continue to experience relative decline and that Asia will come to dwarf the rest of the world in terms of its economic and military power.

Among other conclusions, the wave of Islamist terrorism is likely to have ended by 2030, the survey predicts, the US will be energy-independent and could be a significant exporter of energy, and advances in manufacturing technologies could reduce the need for outsourcing. The study also warns that future conflicts in Asia and the Middle East could involve a “nuclear element”.