Once again, it’s the veil of secrecy that makes North Korea so dangerous.

From the moment we learned that Kim Jong-il had been dead for two days and that young Kim Jong-un would take his place, upbeat market reaction represented a triumph of hope over experience. Few miss the father, but the son was always ill-equipped to bring about constructive change—inside North Korea or in relations with others.

In fact, the new leader was overmatched from the beginning. The father was groomed for more than two decades before inheriting power in 1994 at the age of 53. The son, a 29-year-old political novice, was pushed into place late last year after less than two years’ experience with the family business. The steady deterioration of North Korea’s economy and infrastructure over several decades, particularly outside the capital, ensures that the boy and his minders have much to do.