What do the financial and economic crises of the high-income countries mean for emerging and developing countries? This was a question I addressed at a discussion in New Delhi last week, sponsored by the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI), the Consumer Unity & Trust Society (CUTS) and the Financial Times.

The conclusion I drew was that the crisis is dangerous. But this is not so much because of its direct effects. It is far more because of the lessons that might be drawn. The right lessons have to be drawn, not the wrong ones.

In the years since the financial crisis broke upon the high-income countries, the economic performance of the biggest emerging countries has been remarkable. Even allowing for the slowdown forecast for 2012 in the International Monetary Fund’s recent World Economic Outlook update, India’s gross domestic product is set to rise by 43 per cent between 2007 and 2012. This is below China’s rise of 56 per cent. But it is far superior to the high-income countries’ 2 per cent. (See charts.)