“Whatever will be, will be. The future is not ours to see.” This refrain remains as true for central bankers as for other aspiring economic forecasters. Forecasting is done adequately when everything is stable and the future turns out to be like the past; indeed, standard models used by central banks virtually force forecasts to revert to past trends. But when a break comes, central banks are as clueless to foresee it as anyone else. Forecasts for 2008 made as late as the middle of the same year are a case in point.
“未來該怎樣就會怎樣，我們根本無從預測。”無論是對央行官員還是對其他有抱負的經濟預測人士來說，這句歌詞的道理都依然適用。在一切保持穩(wěn)定、未來重復過去的情況下，預測是沒有問題的；事實上，央行使用的標準模型幾乎就是在通過硬套過去的趨勢來做出預測。但當發(fā)生突變時，央行其實與其他人一樣，都無從對未來做出預測。他們在2008年年中時對當年所做的預測，就很好地證明了這一點。
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