China’s manufacturing sector had a strong January, at least according to an official survey that required extensive statistical adjustments due to last week’s New Year holiday. Independent economists who conducted their own data adjustments found signs of surprising weakness.

Amid the confusion, all could agree on one point: trying to get a clear read on the Chinese economy at the start of the year, when much of the country shuts down for a couple of weeks, is fiendishly difficult.

This has always been the case but is particularly vexing this year. The economy may be at a turning point, requiring much more policy support to keep growth on track. Yet it could be weeks, even months, before the full extent of any slowdown becomes clear.