The euro may soon collapse even though there is no fundamental reason for it to fail. Everything depends on Italy, because financial markets now fear it may be insolvent. If Italy must continue paying a 7 per cent interest rate, the country’s total debt will grow faster than its ability to service that debt. If investors expect that to persist, they will stop lending to Italy. At that point, Italy will be forced to leave the euro. The resulting “new lira” will reduce the price of Italian exports. Competitive pressure could then force France to leave the euro as well, bringing the monetary union to an end.
歐元可能很快崩潰，即便沒有任何根本原因。一切都取決于意大利，因為金融市場目前擔心該國可能無力償債。如果意大利必須為其國債繼續支付7%的利率，那么它的債務總額的增速將超過其償債能力。如果投資者預計這種情形將持續下去，他們就不會再借錢給意大利。到那時意大利將被迫脫離歐元區。由此產生的“新里拉”將導致意大利出口價格下降。接著，競爭壓力可能迫使法國也脫離歐元區，從而導致歐元區解體。