Anyone who imagines that the Arab uprisings herald a short or smooth transition to democracy should take a glance at the western Balkans. Two decades after the fall of communism, the wounds have yet to heal in the former Yugoslavia. This in spite of a vast panoply of economic and political incentives proffered by the US and Europe.

The crisis in Libya as Muammer Gaddafi clings to power will not be the only violent rupture as despots begin to fall in the Middle East. Nor will the eventual removal of the Libyan leader map an easy path to liberal democracy and economic prosperity in societies so long imprisoned by authoritarianism.

Building the infrastructure of freedom and the rule of law will be a painstaking and painful business. The one prediction that can be made with some certainty is that the revolutions will be punctuated by protracted periods of chaos.