China’s toymakers could be a lot busier in future, if media reports are correct. China’s one-child policy is apparently under discussion at the country’s family planning departments, and could be rolled back in urban areas some time in the next five years to allow a second child. A government official quoted in the People’s Daily Online says that China is becoming rich enough to prevent a population boom should the policy come to an end.

'Wang [Yuqing, CPPCC member and deputy director of the Committee of Population, Resources and Environment] said that the two-child policy will not lead to a population boom. He said that birth rates in large cities, such as Beijing and Shanghai, are decreasing because the cost of raising a child has increased and young people’s attitudes have also changed. This is also consistent with the international trend. If quality of life reaches a certain level, the population will naturally decrease without government control.' China’s one-child policy has been in place for over 30 years. It doesn’t apply to everyone – in rural areas some families are allowed to have two children if the first child is a girl (hence why some have dubbed it the ‘one-son policy’), while some ethnic minority groups are allowed to have a number of children. Aside from a spike in demand for toys and baby formula, there are other ways that a jump in baby numbers might have implications for the economy. Having two kids rather than one could have an impact on savings rates – as parents spend more on bigger families and worry less about having someone to care for them in old age. Spending on children, not least education, could divert money away from other forms of consumption. And then there’s the housing market. China has built a huge number of new residential properties in the last decade. But lots of them are designed for a maximum of 3 people: mum, dad, and baby. If families add another mouth, property developers may have to add another bedroom. But it may be too late. Some young couples in Shanghai, for example, have grown so attatched to the extra personal spending they can enjoy when they don’t have children that they hesitate about starting a family at all. Perhaps the one-child policy has gone further than its inventors would have wished.