No one could predict that the death of a Tunisian vegetable vendor would spark revolts across the Middle East, threatening regimes from Libya to Iran. But while these shockwaves might seem chaotic, they are in fact only the latest example of a powerful political phenomenon: the J-curve, or the dip in stability as countries move from closed to open societies. The concept also explains why many of the region’s governments are now caught in what may prove to be an inescapable trap.
沒人能料到，突尼斯一名菜販的死亡，會掀起整個中東地區的反叛浪潮，從利比亞到伊朗的各個政權都受到威脅。不過，這些浪潮盡管看上去也許雜亂無章，它們實際上只是一種普遍政治現象的最新例證：J曲線——即隨著一個國家從封閉轉向開放，它的穩定度會先下降再上升。這一概念還解釋了，為何中東地區的許多政府現在都陷入了一種可能最終不可避免的困境。
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