Between now and the November elections, the biggest political fight in the US is likely to be about taxes. Unless Congress acts, big tax cuts enacted in 2001 and 2003 during George Bush's presidency will expire at the end of the year. With the recovery faltering, Republicans and Democrats understand that reversing all of the cuts so soon is a bad idea, but this is where their agreement stops.

Democrats want to make most of the tax cuts permanent. Republicans want to make all of them permanent. Fiscally speaking, the two sides are not as far apart as they pretend: they are almost equally wrong. Politically speaking, they cannot converge. With both sides seeking maximum advantage, gridlock is a distinct possibility.

Ordinarily, this would mean that nothing happens – and there are worse outcomes than that, you might think. In this case, gridlock means dramatic action: a swingeing tax increase with the economy still on its knees. It puts paralysis as usual in a frightening new light.