This week's spy scandal will open up a temporary rift across the Atlantic. But it is unlikely to undermine one of the most important trends in contemporary international relations: the combination of the west scaling back its ambitions in the former Soviet Union with Russia's growing realisation that it needs a new partnership with its former US and European rivals. This rapprochement is more solid than previous attempts because it is based not on dreams of friendship but on realistic calculations of national interests – interests that neither side is likely to risk for a return to the cold war rivalries of old.

Despite stabilising its economy, the Russian administration has come to recognise its failure to foster the kind of economic transformation that would give it the chance of surviving as a major power when its energy exports finally run dry. It now sees working with the west as critical to its hopes of economic transformation, not just because of investment and skills but because of the mindsets that could help Russia to overcome its culture of corruption and waste.

Without such help Russia risks in the long run becoming little more than a provider of raw materials to the Chinese, and even a Chinese dependency – a picture that fills Russians with private dread. To prevent this, Russia must rebuild its high-technology industries in a non-military way, and increase the productivity of its small business sector.