Global imbalances are about to jump again. New estimates from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development suggest that the sharp decline in the exchange rate of the euro, along with tepid European growth, will produce eurozone surpluses of at least $300bn (€251bn, ￡208bn) annually within the next few years. The tightening of fiscal policies throughout Europe in response to the crisis, along with the new balanced budget amendment in Germany, will both depress domestic demand and require easier monetary policy that will weaken the euro further.
全球失衡即將再次加劇。經(jīng)合組織(OECD)的最新估計(jì)顯示，歐元匯率大幅下跌，加之歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)的溫和增長，將讓歐元區(qū)在未來幾年每年產(chǎn)生至少3000億美元的盈余。整個(gè)歐洲面對危機(jī)而實(shí)施的財(cái)政緊縮政策，以及德國通過的新平衡預(yù)算修正案，都將抑制內(nèi)部需求，要求實(shí)施更寬松的貨幣政策——這將進(jìn)一步削弱歐元。