In the dark days of early 2009, inflation doom-mongers gathered ranks. Beware, they warned, jumbo stimulus packages and ballooning central bank balance sheets will destroy the value of your hard-earned cash. Sovereign bond markets agreed – from December lows of 2 per cent, yields on 10-year Treasuries, for example, rose 170 basis points in six months.

But inflation remained muted and fears eased. Is this about to change? Higher-than-expected inflation reports for January are springing up all over the place. Producer prices in the US were up 1.4 per cent, 60 basis points higher than forecast. Across the border Canadian consumer prices rose at the fastest pace for more than a year. Inflation in the UK is again more than a percentage point above target. Countries from Israel to Indonesia are also struggling to contain prices.

Many of these spurts are due to higher energy and food costs. Inflation doves point out that core numbers – which strip these out – are generally benign; January consumer prices in the US, for example, actually fell month-on-month. But it is dangerous to ignore headline inflation. After all, fuel and rice prices matter to Europeans and Vietnamese alike and can affect inflationary expectations.