The big risk in China today is inflation – not just because of the 2009 money blowout, but also thanks to secular demographic trends that are generating wage pressure.
China's tightening labour market means it will have to live with significantly higher normal inflation than in the past decade. But that is no bad thing as wage-driven inflation should play a crucial role in helping China to rebalance its lopsided economy.
Experience from the high-growth economies of East Asia suggests that non-accelerating inflation arising from rapid wage growth generated by big productivity gains in a flexible labour market is compatible with sustained and healthy economic growth.
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