Bao ba! Defend the eight! If there were any lingering doubts about China's fetish for targets, last week's publication of the contributions to economic growth in 2009 should have removed them. As exports plummeted, Beijing compensated by ramping up investment to keep gross domestic product growth at a level appropriate for the 60th anniversary year of the founding of the People's Republic. Ninety two per cent of last year's 8.7 per cent growth came from spending on fixed assets, without which the country had hitherto functioned fine. The 8 per cent growth target, in short, was everything.
In 2010, however, the picture may be subtly changing. Nationally, the magical 8 per cent target remains. But, as Royal Bank of Scotland notes, there are signs that provinces have begun to pay more attention to the quality of growth. According to local media reports, Shanghai's provincial government will no longer rank its municipal districts by GDP. The implication: top-down planning encourages bottom-up misallocation. The export-heavy provinces of Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang, meanwhile, have all reportedly set lower targets for the year, the better to focus on the constituents of growth.
These shifts do not mark the beginning of the end of economic targets, which remain at the core of the system of advancement. And fine words on rebalancing are not always met by actions: three years ago Premier Wen Jiabao tore strips off an “unbalanced” and “unsustainable” economy, only to legitimise China's export dependency by substituting investment during the downturn. But there seems to be a new note of urgency in official commentary on the structure of the economy. Last week, President Hu Jintao called for “no delay” in boosting service industries, consumption and technology, at the expense of exports and investment. If targets get marginalised along the way, so much the better.