The joke in Sao Paulo used to be that Brazil was the country of the future, and always would be. But by the look of the past few years, that barb may have lost its sting. Over the past decade, the big economies among the emerging markets – particularly the Bric countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China – have shown they are capable of providing more than an entertaining sideshow to the main act of the US, Europe and Japan.

Having already taken a rising share of global economic growth and trade, those four emerging markets pressed home their advantage during the global financial crisis. Their economies, whose financial systems proved largely immune to contagion from the virulent disease that spread around capital markets, continued to hold up relatively well while the US and Europe went into a tailspin.

Russia, whose economy remains heavily dependent on oil and gas exports and hence on global energy prices, was a glaring exception. Many analysts regard Russia as a semi-detached member of the grouping, and think that the Bric acronym should read Bic.